Why are some regions of the country more affected than others? Beyond the obvious population density issue in places like NYC, it seems like some regions are simply not as hard-hit despite a lack of stay-at-home orders. I’ve read that it doesn’t have to do with warm weather, so what else is at work?
Chris Kemp, M.S.:
There are numerous possible explanations for the pattern of infection. Ultimately, all regions will likely be affected to the same degree.
Communities with more elderly demographics might see higher rates of mortality (see parts of Florida and New Jersey). Cities with very poorly-functioning infrastructures are going to see higher rates of transmission, fewer people obeying stay-at-home-orders, and higher rates of mortality (see Detroit and Flint). Even so, the likelier explanation is that states and regions with less robust testing record fewer cases ... but the cases are there, undetected.
As we've seen this week in Texas, California, and Florida, regions that were hit less hard to begin with will catch up given the chance.
The pandemic does also have a socio-political component. Research shows that blue states obeyed stay-at-home orders with more compliance than red states, and we're seeing the effects of some of those differences now.